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Growth still positive but slowing as tight monetary policy and elevated rates begin to bite.
The economy remains resilient but monetary policy is restrictive (Fed funds at 3.64%). The yield curve is flat at 0.52%. Growth is decelerating and the risk of a policy-induced slowdown is rising. Historically, this phase precedes a slowdown or recession within 12–18 months.
Key Signals
Regime Spectrum
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