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Marlowe Research — Investment Memo
Slowdown
Composite Score
-32
Confidence
High
Signals
10
Tuesday, March 31, 2026 | CONFIDENTIAL — FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY
Leading indicators are weakening materially. Unemployment at 4.1% is showing strain and consumer confidence has fallen to 68. A recession is not yet confirmed but the probability is rising.
The composite macro score of -32 out of 100 reflects a high-confidence reading across 10 monitored signals. Of these, 3 are bullish, 5 neutral, and 2 bearish.
Broad-based growth with contained inflation and accommodative or neutral policy.
Growth still positive but slowing as tight monetary policy and elevated rates begin to bite.
Growth decelerating materially; leading indicators weakening but recession not yet confirmed.
Broad contraction in economic activity, rising unemployment, and tightening credit conditions.
Activity bottoming and beginning to recover as monetary policy eases and credit conditions improve.
Elevated inflation persisting alongside weak or negative growth — the most challenging macro environment.
| Signal | Status | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | neutral | 4.1% |
| Nonfarm Payroll | neutral | +150K |
| Retail Sales MoM | neutral | 0.3% |
| Consumer Confidence | bearish | 68.0 |
| CPI Inflation YoY | neutral | 2.8% |
| Core PCE | bullish | 2.5% |
| Fed Funds Rate | neutral | 4.33% |
| Yield Curve (10Y-2Y) | bullish | +34.00% |
| 10Y Treasury Yield | bearish | 4.62% |
| VIX (Volatility) | bullish | 16.5 |
Select Indicators (8 selected)
Monetary Policy
Fixed Income
Inflation
Labor Market
Growth
Global PMIs
Housing
Consumer
Credit Markets
Commodities
Currency
Liquidity
Market Signals
Trade
Fiscal
Emerging Markets
Volatility
Energy
Monetary Policy
Federal Funds Rate
4.33 %
+0.0%
The interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds overnight. The Fed's primary tool for influencing the economy.
Is the current rate restrictive or accommodative relative to inflation?
With the rate at 4.25-4.50% and core PCE around 2.6%, the real rate is positive (~1.9%), maintaining a restrictive stance.
What is the market pricing in for the next 12 months?
Fed funds futures imply 2-3 cuts over the next year, suggesting the market expects a gradual easing cycle.
How does this compare to the neutral rate (r*) estimates?
Current rates remain above most r* estimates (~2.5% nominal), confirming policy is still actively restrictive.
Fixed Income
US 3-Month Treasury Yield
4.35 %
-19.4%
The yield on the 3-month US Treasury bill, the closest proxy for the risk-free rate and a direct reflection of near-term Fed policy expectations.
How does the 3M yield compare to the Fed funds rate?
The 3M T-bill typically trades very close to the effective Fed funds rate, making it the purest measure of current monetary policy stance.
What does the 10Y-3M spread signal?
The 10Y-3M spread is the New York Fed's preferred recession predictor. Inversion has preceded every recession since the 1960s.
How do T-bill yields affect money market flows?
High T-bill yields attract cash from bank deposits into money market funds, tightening bank liquidity and lending capacity.
Inflation
CPI Inflation (YoY)
2.80 %
-3.4%
The Consumer Price Index measures average price changes for a basket of consumer goods and services. YoY shows the percentage change from the same month a year ago.
Is the disinflation trend broad-based or sector-specific?
Disinflation is largely driven by goods prices normalizing, while services inflation (especially shelter) remains sticky.
How do 3-month annualized rates compare to the YoY figure?
3-month annualized rates running below YoY indicate recent momentum is cooler than the headline suggests.
What is the contribution of shelter to headline CPI?
Shelter contributes roughly 40% of core CPI. With lagged rent measures still elevated, the 'last mile' to 2% remains challenging.
Labor Market
Unemployment Rate
4.10 %
+0.0%
The percentage of the labor force that is jobless, actively seeking employment, and available for work. A lagging indicator of economic health.
Is the Sahm Rule triggering?
The Sahm Rule triggers when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5pp above its 12-month low. Recent readings are approaching this threshold.
What is the difference between U-3 and U-6 unemployment?
U-6 includes marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons, providing a broader picture of labor market slack.
How does current unemployment compare to the NAIRU?
With unemployment near the Fed's estimated NAIRU (~4%), the labor market is near full employment.
Growth
Real GDP Growth (QoQ Ann.)
2.30 %
+64.3%
The annualized quarterly change in real Gross Domestic Product, adjusted for inflation. The broadest measure of economic activity.
Is the current growth rate above or below potential?
With real GDP growth near 2.5-3%, the economy is running at or slightly above potential (~2%), keeping inflationary pressure elevated.
What are the main components driving growth?
Consumer spending (70% of GDP) has been resilient, while business investment and net exports have been mixed.
How does nominal GDP growth compare to real?
Nominal GDP growth above 5% historically supports corporate revenue growth, even as real growth moderates.
Global PMIs
ISM Manufacturing PMI
49.30 Index
+0.4%
The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing purchasing managers' index. Readings above 50 indicate expansion; below 50 indicate contraction.
How long has manufacturing been in contraction?
The ISM Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for most of the past 18 months, the longest contraction since the 2008-2009 recession.
Which sub-components are most important?
New orders (leading), production (coincident), and employment (lagging) provide the most useful signals about the manufacturing cycle.
How does the ISM relate to GDP?
ISM Manufacturing below 48.7 has historically been consistent with overall economic contraction, not just manufacturing weakness.
Housing
Housing Starts
1380.00 K
+1.0%
The number of new residential construction projects begun in a given month. A leading indicator of construction activity and consumer confidence.
How do housing starts relate to mortgage rates?
Housing starts are highly sensitive to mortgage rates. The surge in 30Y rates to 7%+ caused a significant decline in starts.
Is there a structural housing shortage?
Years of underbuilding have created a structural deficit estimated at 3-5 million units, supporting prices even as affordability deteriorates.
Single-family vs. multi-family?
Single-family starts are more sensitive to mortgage rates, while multi-family has been supported by rental demand.
Consumer
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
68.00 Index
-4.4%
A monthly survey measuring consumer attitudes about current and future economic conditions. A leading indicator of consumer spending.
How does sentiment relate to actual spending?
Consumer sentiment leads spending by 1-3 months. However, the relationship has weakened post-pandemic.
What is driving the divergence between sentiment and spending?
Excess savings, strong labor markets, and wealth effects have supported spending even as inflation eroded confidence.
How do inflation expectations within the survey affect Fed policy?
The survey's 5-10 year inflation expectations are closely watched by the Fed. A de-anchoring above 3% would prompt more aggressive tightening.
The macro regime is determined by a rule-based engine that evaluates 196 economic indicators across 18 categories. Each indicator is scored against historical thresholds to produce a bullish, neutral, or bearish signal. The composite score aggregates all signals into a single number from -100 (most bearish) to +100 (most bullish), which maps to one of six regime labels: Expansion, Late Cycle/Tightening, Slowdown, Recession/Contraction, Recovery/Easing, or Stagflation.
Primary data is sourced from Alpha Vantage (premium) for financial market indicators and FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) for macroeconomic series. Data is refreshed on each page load with graceful fallback to cached static values if API limits are reached.
This memo is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The regime classification is a quantitative framework and should be used alongside fundamental analysis and professional judgement.
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